Ishishini: Ngenxa yempembelelo yerhafu yaseMelika, amaxabiso okuthutha iikhonteyina zaselwandle ehlile

Uhlalutyo lwemizi-mveliso lubonisa ukuba uphuhliso lwamva nje kumgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo wase-US luphinde lwabeka imixokelelwane yokubonelela ngeenkonzo kwihlabathi liphela kwimeko yokungazinzi, njengoko ukubekwa kukaMongameli uDonald Trump kunye nokuyekiswa okuncinci kwerhafu ethile kubangele ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kunye nokungaqiniseki kumashishini asebenza eMntla Melika.

Olu luvo lokungaqiniseki luye lwafikelela nakwizinga lokuthunyelwa kwemithwalo kwiikhonteyina zaselwandle, kwaye ngokwedatha yeFreightos Baltic Index, izinga lokuthunyelwa kweekhonteyina zaselwandle liye lawela kwintlungu yexesha eliphantsi lesiqhelo ekuqaleni konyaka.

Isibhengezo sokuqala serhafu ye-25% kuzo zonke iimpahla ezingeniswe yi-United States ezivela eMexico naseKhanada saba nefuthe elibi kwishishini lezothutho. Nangona kunjalo, kwiintsuku ezimbalwa, urhulumente ukhuphe umyalelo wokumiswa kwenyanga enye weemveliso zeemoto ezigutyungelwe yi-United States Mexico Canada Agreement, eyathi kamva yongezwa kuzo zonke iimveliso ezingeniswe phantsi kwesivumelwano. Oku kuchaphazela i-50% yokungeniswa kwempahla evela eKhanada kunye ne-38% yokungeniswa kwempahla evela eMexico, kuquka iimveliso zeemoto, ukutya kunye neemveliso zezolimo, kunye neemveliso ezininzi zombane neze-elektroniki.

Iimpahla eziseleyo ezingenisiweyo ezixabisa malunga ne-1 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngosuku ngoku zijongene nokunyuka kwerhafu ngama-25%. Olu didi lugubungela uluhlu olubanzi lweemveliso ukusuka kwiifowuni, iikhompyutha ukuya kwizixhobo zonyango. Ukuphunyezwa ngequbuliso kunye nokumiswa okuncinci kwezi rhafu kubangele ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwezothutho oluwela imida kunye nokuhamba komhlaba okuvela eMexico naseKhanada.

UJudah Levine, umlawuli wophando kwiFreightos, ubhale kwingxelo ekhutshwe ngedatha yamva nje ukuba olu tshintsho lwerhafu aluyonto ingaqhelekanga, kodwa yinxalenye yendlela kaTrump ebanzi yokusebenzisa umgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo njengesixhobo sokufezekisa iinjongo ezahlukeneyo. Kule meko, iinjongo ezibhengeziweyo ziquka ukujongana nemiba yokhuseleko lwemida kunye nokuthintela ukuhamba kwe-fentanyl kunye nabafuduki abangekho mthethweni. Nangona kunjalo, ezinye iingxelo zibonisa ukuba oku kungenxa yokuba abavelisi beemoto bathembisa ukutshintsha imveliso ethile ukusuka eCanada naseMexico ukuya eMelika.

ULevin uthe ukungaqiniseki okubangelwe lolu tshintsho lukhawulezileyo lomgaqo-nkqubo kwenza ucwangciso kunye nohlengahlengiso lwabathuthi lube nzima kakhulu. Iinkampani ezininzi zithatha isimo sengqondo sokulinda nokubona ngaphambi kokuba zizibophelele kutshintsho olukhulu kwiindlela zazo zokubonelela. Nangona kunjalo, isoyikiso sokunyuka kwerhafu sisondele, ingakumbi kwiimpahla ezingeniswe eTshayina nakwamanye amaqabane orhwebo ase-US, nto leyo eye yabangela ukuba abanye abathumeli bathumele imithwalo yolwandle ngaphambi kwexesha elicwangcisiweyo ukusukela ngoNovemba, nto leyo eyonyusa imfuno kunye neendleko zokuthumela.

Idatha yamva nje evela kwiNational Retail Federation ibonisa ukuba ukususela ngoNovemba kunyaka ophelileyo ukuya kuFebruwari kulo nyaka, umthamo wokungeniswa kwempahla yolwandle e-US unyuke malunga ne-12% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, nto leyo ebonisa impembelelo enkulu yokuqhuba. Nangona kulindeleke ukuba umthamo wempahla uhlale uqinile kuyo yonke iMeyi, kulindeleke ukuba umthamo wempahla ngoJuni nangoJulayi unciphe, nto leyo ebonisa ukuqala okubuthathaka kwixesha lesiqhelo lexesha eliphakamileyo ngenxa yokuthunyelwa kwangoko.

Impembelelo yale mithetho yorhwebo ikwabonakala nakwizinga lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwiikhonteyina. Emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar, amaxabiso eekhonteyina ze-trans Pacific aqhubekile nokuhla, kunye nezinga lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwiWest Coast lehla laya kwi-$2660 ngeyunithi elinganayo yeenyawo ezingama-40 kwaye kwiEast Coast lehla laya kwi-$3754 nge-FEU. Xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo, la manani ehle ngama-40% kwaye angaphantsi okanye angaphantsi kancinci kwinqanaba eliphantsi lika-2024 emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar.
Ngokufanayo, kwiiveki zakutshanje, amaxabiso okuthutha impahla elwandle kurhwebo lwaseAsia Europe nawo ehle ngaphantsi kwenqanaba eliphantsi lonyaka ophelileyo.

Izinga le-Asia Nordic linyuke nge-3% ukuya kwi-$3064 nge-FEU nganye. Ixabiso le-Asia Mediterranean lisahleli kwinqanaba le-$4159 nge-FEU nganye.

Nangona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokubanzi ekuqaleni kukaMatshi kwanciphisa oku kwehla kwaza kwanyusa amaxabiso ngamakhulu ambalwa eedola, ukunyuka bekungaphantsi kakhulu kokunyuka kwe-$1000 okwabhengezwa ngumqhubi. Amaxabiso kummandla we-Asia Mediterranean azinze kwaye alingana nalawo onyaka ophelileyo.

ULevin uthe ubuthathaka bakutshanje kwizinga lokuthutha impahla, ingakumbi kwiindlela ezinqumla iPacific, bunokuba ngumphumo wezinto ezininzi ezisebenzisanayo. Oku kuquka ukungami kwemfuno emva kweNtwasahlobo yoMnyhadala, kunye nohlengahlengiso lwakutshanje lwemibutho yabaqhubi, olukhokelele kukhuphiswano oluqinisiweyo kunye nokuncipha kokusebenza kakuhle kolawulo lwamandla njengoko abasebenzi beqhelana neenkonzo ezisandula ukuqaliswa.

Njengoko eli shishini lijongene nokungaqiniseki, imihla yokugqibela emininzi izayo. Oku kuquka indibano yoMmeli woRhwebo wase-United States ngomhla wama-24 kweyoKwindla, eya kwenza isigqibo malunga neentlawulo zezibuko ezicetywayo; Ngokwememorandam kaMongameli ethi "America First Trade Policy", umhla wokugqibela wokuba ii-arhente zibike imiba eyahlukeneyo yorhwebo ngumhla woku-1 kweyoKwindla, ngelixa umhla wokugqibela omtsha wokubeka irhafu ye-25% kwiimpahla ze-USMCA ngumhla wesi-2 kweyoKwindla.