Umzi-mveliso: Ngenxa yefuthe leerhafu zase-US, amaxabiso othutho lwezikhongozelo zolwandle ehlile

Uhlalutyo lweshishini lucebisa ukuba uphuhliso lwamva nje kumgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo wase-US luphinde lwabeka ikhonkco lonikezelo lwehlabathi kwimeko engazinzanga, njengoko ukubekwa kukaMongameli uDonald Trump kunye nokunqunyanyiswa ngokuyinxenye kwezinye iirhafu kubangele ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kunye nokungaqiniseki kumashishini asebenza eMntla Melika.

Le mvakalelo yokungaqiniseki iye yanda yaya kutsho kumazinga othutho lwezikhongozelo zaselwandle, kwaye ngokwedatha ye-Freightos Baltic Index, amazinga othutho lwezikhongozelo zaselwandle awele kwintlungu yexesha eliphantsi lesiqhelo ekuqaleni konyaka.

Isibhengezo sokuqala somrhumo wama-25% kuzo zonke iimpahla ezithengwe kumazwe angaphandle yi-United States zisuka eMexico naseCanada zibe nefuthe elibi kushishino lolungiselelo. Nangona kunjalo, kwiintsuku ezimbalwa, urhulumente wakhupha umyalelo wokunqunyanyiswa kwenyanga enye kwiimveliso zemoto eziphantsi kwe-United States Mexico Canada Agreement, eyathi kamva yongezwa kuzo zonke iimveliso ezithunyelwa ngaphandle phantsi kwesivumelwano. Oku kuchaphazela i-50% yokungeniswa kwempahla evela eCanada kunye ne-38% yezinto ezivela ngaphandle ezivela eMexico, kubandakanywa iimveliso zemoto, ukutya kunye neemveliso zezolimo, kunye neemveliso ezininzi zombane neze-elektroniki.

Impahla eseleyo evela kumazwe angaphandle exabisa malunga nebhiliyoni enye yeerandi ngosuku ngoku ijongene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngama-25%. Olu didi lubandakanya uluhlu olubanzi lweemveliso ukusuka kwiifowuni, iikhompyuter ukuya kwizixhobo zonyango. Ukuphunyezwa ngesiquphe kunye nokunqunyanyiswa ngokuyinxenye kwezi ntlawulo kubangele ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwezothutho eziwela imida kunye nokuhamba komhlaba ukusuka eMexico naseKhanada.

UJudah Levine, umlawuli wophando kwiFreightos, wabhala kwingxelo ekhutshwe ngedatha yamva nje ukuba le ntlawulo ayiyona isiganeko esizimeleyo, kodwa inxalenye yendlela ebanzi kaTrump yokusebenzisa umgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo njengesiseko sokufikelela kwiinjongo ezahlukeneyo. Kule meko, iinjongo ezichazweyo ziquka ukujongana nemiba yokhuseleko lomda kunye nokuthintela ukuhamba kwe-fentanyl kunye nabafuduki abangekho mthethweni. Noko ke, ezinye iingxelo zibonisa ukuba oku ngokuyinxenye kungenxa yokuba abenzi beemoto bathembisa ukususa imveliso ethile eKhanada naseMexico iye eUnited States.

ULevin uthe ukungaqiniseki okuziswe lolu tshintsho lukhawulezayo lomgaqo-nkqubo kwenza ukuba ucwangciso kunye nohlengahlengiso lwabahambi ngenqanawa lube ngumngeni kakhulu. Iinkampani ezininzi zifumana isimo sengqondo sokulinda-kwaye-ukubona ngaphambi kokuba zibophelele kutshintsho olubalulekileyo kwiikhonkco zabo zokubonelela. Nangona kunjalo, isoyikiso sokunyuka kwamaxabiso sisondele, ngakumbi kwimpahla evela e-China nakwamanye amahlakani arhweba e-US, nto leyo ebangele ukuba abanye abarhwebi bathumele imithwalo yaselwandle ngaphambi kweshedyuli ukusukela ngoNovemba, ukonyusa imfuno kunye neendleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa.

Idatha yakutshanje evela kwi-National Retail Federation ibonisa ukuba ukususela ngoNovemba kunyaka odlulileyo ukuya kuFebruwari kulo nyaka, umthamo wokungenisa impahla elwandle lwase-US unyuke malunga ne-12% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo, obonisa umphumo omkhulu wokuqhuba. Nangona kulindeleke ukuba umthamo wempahla uya kuhlala womelele kulo lonke uMeyi, kulindeleke ukuba umthamo wempahla ngoJuni nangoJulayi uya kuba buthathaka, okubonisa isiqalo esibuthathaka kwincopho yesiqhelo ngenxa yokuthunyelwa kwangoko.

Impembelelo yoku kuguquguquka komgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo ibonakala nakwimilinganiselo yokuthuthwa kweebhokisi. Emva koNyaka oMtsha waseLunar, amaxabiso eekhonteyina ze-trans Pacific aqhubekile ehla, amaxabiso empahla kuNxweme oluseNtshona ehla ukuya kutsho kwi-2660 yeedola ezingama-40 ngonyawo olulinganayo kunye noNxweme oluseMpuma lwehla ukuya kwi-3754 yeedola nge-FEU nganye. Xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo, la manani ehle nge-40% kwaye angaphantsi okanye kancinane kwindawo ephantsi ye-2024 emva koNyaka oMtsha waseLunar.
Ngokufanayo, kwiiveki zamva nje, amaxabiso othutho elwandle orhwebo lwase-Asia Yurophu nawo awe phantsi kwinqanaba eliphantsi lonyaka ophelileyo.

Izinga le-Asia Nordic linyuke nge-3% ukuya kwi-3064 yeedola nge-FEU nganye. Ixabiso le-Asia yeMeditera lihlala kwinqanaba le-4159 yeedola nge-FEU nganye.

Nangona ukunyuka kwesantya ngokubanzi ekuqaleni kuka-Matshi kuthobile oku kuhla kwaye kwanyusa amazinga anyuka ngamakhulu ambalwa eedola, ukonyuka bekungaphantsi kakhulu kwe-1000 yeedola ezibhengezwe ngumqhubi. Amaxabiso akummandla we-Asiya kwiMeditera azinzile kwaye aphantse alingane nalawo onyaka odlulileyo.

U-Levin uthe ubuthathaka bamva nje kumaxabiso othutho, ngakumbi kwiindlela ezidlula kwiPasifiki, inokuba sisiphumo sezinto ezininzi ezisebenza kunye. Oku kuquka ukudodobala kwemfuno emva koMnyhadala waseNtwasahlobo, kwakunye nohlenga-hlengiso lwakutsha nje lweemanyano zabasebenzisi, olukhokelele kukhuphiswano olumandla kunye nokuncipha kobuchule bolawulo lwezakhono njengoko abaqhubi beziqhelanisa neenkonzo ezisandula ukusungulwa.

Ngeshishini elijongene nokungaqiniseki, amaxesha amaninzi abalulekileyo azayo. Oku kuquka ukuvalelwa koMmeli woRhwebo wase-United States ngomhla wama-24 kuMatshi, oya kuthi enze isigqibo malunga neentlawulo ezicetywayo zezibuko; Ngokutsho kwememorandam kaMongameli ye-"America First Trade Policy", umhla wokugqibela wokuba ii-arhente zichaze imiba eyahlukeneyo yorhwebo ngu-Aprili 1st, ngelixa ixesha elitsha lokumisela i-25% yerhafu kwiimpahla ze-USMCA ngu-Aprili 2nd.